Topic 6: Predictions

Michael: I'm afraid the political-book-flood shows little sign of abating, but I'd like to think that at some point interest in fiction (real fiction, not The Da Vinci Code-sort) will surge back.  Possibly, however, the jr Bush administration might only drive people to pure escapism - i.e. more mindless and very basic fiction, not the good stuff.

Also: after a year in which literary weblogs appear to have really established themselves (and continue to proliferate), this might be the year when they begin to show some real clout as well. Unfortunately, I suspect at least a few will also become more commercial (or at least try to), and I wonder what effect that will have.

Robert: Thankfully the word "transformative" has dropped out of the lexicon of attention to new media and particularly discussions of the web logging phenomenon. In fact, we are just on the cusp of no longer regarding it as a phenomenon. The movement to legitimacy (meaning acceptance and co-option) is the next part of the cycle. I am thinking of the model of alternative print institutions (late 60s and early 70s) which by the beginning of their second decade were on their way to corruption of, or disavowal of founding values of integrity and independence. Apparently, the most commercially successful web logs (The Gawker, Wonkette et cetera) are out if the Nick Denton formula where a clever mixture of irreverence and "A list" party ubiquity seems to garner much (self-serving) attention. It remains to be seen whether the discovery by the controlling commercial mechanism(s) that a goodly number of very smart and impassioned web loggers who are drawn by an opportunity to think and write unfettered will coalesce into a 5th estate or some such significant force. One thing I think is importantly true, the informational food chain has, uh, transformed again. But this would be a good time to draw on the wisdom of the great Thomas "Fats" Waller, "One never know, do one?"

Amen and so forth.

Alex: I think the current Golden Age of cheap-and-easy, independent Internet media start-ups is going to be snuffed out sooner rather than later. And I've always been uneasy about the blogs, as they are essentially parasitic in nature and are starting to look more like the mainstream media's junior (albeit entertainingly snippy) partner rather than truly independent sources. The concern among some bloggers for "acceptance" and "recognition" strikes me as perverse. I didn't start my site to get a pat on the head from anyone. I want to bury the mainstream.

Of course that's not going to happen, but it was and still remains the plan.

My prediction is we're going to hear more about videogames as literature. They've already knocked off Hollywood as the world's #1 entertainment product. We'll probably start hearing more about the people who write these things, and maybe see some established authors giving it a spin.

Maud: I'll be interested to see how publishers, newspapers, magazines, and the like, deal with the increasingly global discussion about new books. I wonder whether it still will make sense, over time, to release novels in stages - first in the U.K., for instance, then Canada, then the U.S. - or whether simultaneous worldwide releases might start to make more sense.

Jessa: My predictions are "more of the same." After this year's sweep by women authors for the NBA and the Nobel, women will go back to being the token nomination. Comics will be much more interesting now that Drawn & Quarterly has solved their distribution problems and will be back publishing graphic novels at the beginning of the year. Bush's administration will continue to do wonders for the publishing industry. My only optimistic prediction is that Fantagraphics will make enough money off of the Peanuts collections to do some really interesting things, and hopefully one of those things will be the hiring of a better webmaster.