Topic 6: Predictions

Maud: I'd like to think we'll see more literary novels relevant to the current social and political situation. I'm not calling for didacticism, mind you. I'm just saying: Where's the contemporary answer to Camus' The Plague, Vonnegut's Slaughterhouse-Five, Heller's Catch-22?

I'm also hoping there will be increased awareness and recognition of online literary publications, particularly those dedicated to shorter, Internet-friendly works.  I don't hold out much hope for e-books at present, though. The very thought of reading an entire novel online makes my eyes hurt.

Alex: Oh, I am definitely with you on more literary novels (or any novels) relevant to the current social and political situation. So much of the literary scene now revolves around historical novels, "magic realism", or cartoonish satires.

I still don't see e-books taking off. Nothing beats the technology of a book. Moving off topic (a bit) it's interesting to note how the experience of watching movies has started to imitate the reading experience. Like most people over 30 I wouldn't dream of going to see a movie in a theatre. So I've really enjoyed the whole DVD revolution (at least so far). DVDs make movies into books: you often watch them alone, they are divided up into chapters so you can stop them anytime and come back to them later, and many include a whole range of critical extras, including essays and introductions and editorial commentaries. A big improvement over VHS.

Anyway, my prediction has to do with retail. Amazon is apparently making money now. I really see online bookselling as having a bright future, especially if they keep up this free shipping. I live in the country and it's a real convenience for me. What does this mean? I think the monster book barn superstores are going to be in for a rough ride. These guys are going to have to scale back. I won't be too disappointed to see them go. Something about walking through their acres of books (and the long aisles of remainder bins) was starting to depress me.

I do think the small bookstores will be able to survive. In fact they might do better once the big box stores start closing. I still like the small bookstore atmosphere. Perhaps a renaissance of cafe culture is just around the corner!

Michael: My biggest fear: no end to the seemingly inexorable trend of print media online no longer being readily and freely accessible, making even less literary coverage widely available. Even sites that continue to be freely accessible have tinkered with registration- and pay-per-view requirements over the past year (The Spectator, The Independent, Evening Standard) - if they too go over to the dark side then that leaves only the last bastions of The Guardian/The Observer and the San Francisco Chronicle among the major sites with exceptional literary coverage open to all. I think we are already seeing the effects to some extent: The Guardian/The Observer seems the main point of reference in a great deal of online (weblog, etc.) literary coverage (and while they're great, I think that's also terribly limiting).

The only positive that may come out of this - and what I'm hoping for (and, I suppose, predicting) - : a greater shift to an online-focus in the literary debates, as sites and weblogs rely on and refer to one another more. The surge in literary weblogging over the past few months seems like a great step in that direction - but it's unclear at this point whether it will be sustainable (or - even better - snowball!).

As far as the literary scene in the US in 2004 goes, I'm afraid that it being an election year, and with the ongoing foreign military escapades the reigning president has involved the country in, focus will be on the non-fiction area, especially on topical books (i.e., the sort that are only of interest for a season or two). Fiction - i.e., worthwhile stuff - probably won't get the proper attention in 2004. I'd like to see (as Maud says) "literary novels relevant to the current social and political
situation", but I'm not sure that's likely yet.

Jessa: My prediction for 2004 is a dozen more "comics are literature, too!" articles, a dozen more "Is chick lit on its way out?" articles, and hopefully, finally, the death of Snark articles. I predict James Wood will not be able to stick to his pledge and will write another vicious review. I predict the same for Dale Peck. He won't be able to stand being out of the limelight.

And this may just be me being optimistic, heaven forbid, but I think the small presses will continue their rise in success. The Random Houses and the S&S's tendency to deluge the market with shit will eventually be their downfall. Small, flexible presses that concentrate on quality will be more able to attract the public's eye. Consumers have brand loyalty to everything else. I have a feeling people will eventually figure out they can trust certain publishers over others.

But at the same time, I predict that Justin Timberlake's autobiography will sell a whole lot.

Robert: I have never in my life predicted anything except, occasionally, at a ball game, I have had a feeling that the batter currently in the box will hit a home run. Beyond that, I think prognostication is for real estate and financial speculators and farmers.

Having said that, well, what the hell!

- Amazon will open it's first super store in Salt Lake City.

- Chris Hitchens and Henry Kissinger will meet face to face. Since  I can't predict the time of day, I can only suggest their ensuing tête-à-tête will be, uh, newsworthy.

- The Chicago Cubs and the Boston Red Sox will meet in the World Series. Cubs in six.

- Laura Miller will become the  editor of the New York Times Book Review.

- Mario Vargas Llosa will win the Nobel Prize for Literature.

- George Bush will not be elected President. Neither will Howard Dean.

- Elmore Leonard will  publish another spiffy novel.

- Someone will finally publish an English language biography of Karl Kraus.

- Web-based magazines will start to make money- but not Salon.com and not the dreary offshoots of media conglomerates and their co-opted sellout hot shots.

- I'll be appointed the editor of the Paris Review. I will turn the appointment down as I will not live in Manhattan. Thanks.

- My co-panelists Alex Good, Michael Orthofer, Maud Newton & Jessa Crispin will all  read some good books and prosper in the coming year.